Gulf Study Admits Serious Uncertainties In Predicting Oil Spill Recovery
Gulf Coast Claims Facility administrator Kenneth Feinberg recently released a report that he commissioned to predict the Gulf of Mexico's recovery in the aftermath of the now-infamous BP Deepwater Horizon catastrophe – the largest marine oil spill in American history. The report, prepared by Dr. Wes Tunnell of the Harte Research Institute (HRI) for Gulf of Mexico Studies at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi, estimates that certain targeted commercial fish and other species in the Gulf region will fully recover from the horrendous disaster in 2012, with a 30 percent recovery by the end of this year and full recovery by the end of next year.
Dr. Tunnell's report is particularly important because it is a key component of the GCCF's scheme to issue final payments to businesses and individuals who have suffered damages because of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.
According to Feinberg, and as described in more detail in the GCCF's proposed "Final Payment Methodology," most oil spill victims will be allocated lump-sum payments representing twice their documented damages for 2010. That amount rises to four times actual documented losses for oystermen, based on concerns that oyster bed recovery may take up to ten years.
Prompt monetary relief to oil spill victims is a commendable goal, but it is not necessarily in each claimant's best interest to obtain recovery from the GCCF in exchange for waiving rights to future compensation. Each victim of the BP Deepwater Horizon tragedy should consult an experienced maritime attorney before making that decision.
This is particularly true in light of the ongoing uncertainty about the Gulf's recovery. The GCCF report is itself replete with cautions and caveats about the unpredictable nature of maritime oil spill recovery processes.
It is noteworthy, as well, that even as Feinberg released the report prepared by Dr. Tunnell, media reports reflected that plaintiffs' counsel on the Deepwater Horizon multidistrict litigation steering committee have challenged the report's conclusion on the speed of the Gulf's recovery as contrary to a majority of expert opinions to date.
In addition, Feinberg has been criticized for not being independent of BP in the claims administration process, as exemplified in requests by state attorneys general seeking federal court supervision over aspects of the GCCF claims process.
Still others wonder whether the Gulf's recovery could experience a dramatic setback, as happened in the case of Pacific herring after the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska. In that case, fishermen were able to continue harvests of herring for three years after the oil spill, when the herring population suddenly crashed and the fish essentially disappeared from Prince William Sound.
In the case of the Gulf, only time will tell the true extent of the impact of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on the maritime environment.
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